We help clients determine the range of transaction alternatives and feasibility of each, emphasizing predictive high probability outcomes.

Client Profile

Our clients need help understanding the strategic alternatives and choices they have, and the likely impact that decisions made today have on future optionality. Our clients want to understand transaction structures and the feasibility of each – delivered efficiently, cost-effectively, and at high quality. Clients utilizing our Transaction Prediction service range from transaction professionals at large multinationals, owners of successful family-run companies, and biotech CEOs and their investors.

Service Offering

We construct a structured range of situation specific predictive outcomes, including an overview of conceivable transaction structures, an experience-based assessment of their relative feasibility, against the backdrop of a real-world sense check.

The project usually begins with a comprehensive desktop review and analysis phase that forms initial hypotheses. A second step, in alignment with our client, includes a series of preliminary discussions with potential transaction counterparties and other relevant market participants or transaction stakeholders. After such accelerated and focused series of discussions, we return to clients with clear advice on which transaction alternatives are most likely to lead to a successful closing – and why.

Unique Value Proposition

Whilst others may provide a “Strategic Alternatives Review”, our Transaction Prediction offering is particularly focused on leveraging deal-making experience and an ability to evaluate the full spectrum of potentially available transaction processes and structures. We do more than in-depth desktop analysis and thinking; as part of our work, our team of transaction advisors ventures out and commences relevant and practical dialogues with the most valuable and likely counterparties.

  • Alternatives. We advise our clients on the availability and relative merits of alternative transaction scenarios. The range of alternatives reviewed regularly comprises standard structures, such as a trade sale, acquisition or merger, through to more complex structures, such as staged acquisitions or disposals, joint ventures, asset swaps, or carve-outs (selling one part of the portfolio but not all), in addition to cross-licensing deals for individual products.
  • Feasibility. We advise on the feasibility of getting a transaction done, reflecting on each of the alternatives deemed available in principle. We surface, and enable an addressing of, hurdles that our clients may face, including both internal and external factors and how these may develop over time. The former includes factors systemic to the company or the transaction perimeter (e.g. existing supply relationships that may not support a transaction; or a data package that does not address buy-side requirements), whereas the latter are outside the control of our clients (e.g. dynamics in the therapeutic area in question; or strategic priorities of potential counterparties).
  • Predictability of outcomes is accomplished through combining the insights gained on potential alternatives as well as on their respective feasibility into an organised range of predicted results. We include in our analysis not only “hard facts” but also “soft factors” that influence the overall set of outcome scenarios. The process provides unfiltered and unbiased feedback that can shape multiple aspects of a contemplated transaction and have significant influence on its course going forward.
  • We work cost effectively. Without a comprehensive, strategic approach to achieving transaction objectives, firms spend more on fees, over longer periods, experiencing unforeseen outcomes, without increasing the likelihood of success. We regularly conduct is colloquially termed “fire-side” chats – informal, level-setting, one-to-one discussions, leveraged through a broad and deep network. When successfully applied, the benefit to our clients is a faster “read” on the level of interest from counterparties, and hence, importantly, a lower execution risk and avoided sunk cost. As a result, we bring to your table not only the list of firms most likely to engage in a transaction but also the specific list of people with whom we would aim to enter productive discussions around the transaction perimeter.
  • We run an agile process. The project teams we set up have freedom and flexibility to respond to insights gained throughout the process, while remaining comprehensively committed to the goals of our clients. In situations where counterparties (esp. potential buyers) are not interested, we synthesize issues raised and translate perceived roadblocks into actionable strategies and actions to increase interest. Although this sounds simple, the process is complex and requires specialized negotiation skills, only possible given the breadth of expertise of our experts and the trusted and highly valuable relationships our team brings to the table.

The Treehill Difference

  • Transaction experience. We can “predict” transaction outcomes with higher confidence, based on proper desktop analysis, mock diligence, market testing, but most importantly decades of experience and reference to similar situations that allow to see through potential counterparty behaviour.
  • Client focus. The objectives of our clients are at the centre of all our thinking and activities. We help uncover areas that may otherwise remain hidden.
  • Multi-disciplinary perspectives. We leverage multi-disciplinary perspectives across the healthcare universe into our transaction predictions.
  • Long-term view. We apply a long-term perspective beyond the imminent transaction and corporate development juncture at hand, with high-value potential follow-on transactions in mind.

Regional Focus

Our clients predominantly reside in the United States, followed closely by clients from Europe and Latin America. We also have a strong reach into Asia, with a focus on establishing local presences in China and helping Chinese players access Western markets.

How Do We Measure Success?

We measure success by the strength of our capabilities and targeted outcomes: the number of relationships we develop and service, and transaction success achieved through an ever-increasing number of successful corporate, portfolio and product transactions.

Context

We construct a believable range of predictive outcomes, including transaction structures and the feasibility of each, delivered faster, and at lower cost, without sacrificing quality. This 2-minute survey will help us understand to what extent our Transaction Predictions offering is right for you.  

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